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![]() ![]() (There have been some more troop movements since then).Įuropean governments have said likewise. Its conclusion? That “a full-scale invasion capturing most or all of Ukraine in the near future seems unlikely,” citing the insufficient number of Russian troops and a number of other indicators, including the lack of mobilization of medical infrastructure and strategic military units. But they’re not the only ones saying it.Įarlier this week, the Center for Defense Strategies - a think tank headed by a former Ukrainian defense minister and on whose board sit a variety of other defense and diplomatic officials from both Ukraine and the United States - published an analysis of the risks of a Russian invasion. Of course, you could dismiss this as a country’s leadership playing down a threat they know is real to prevent panic and disorder. ![]() In other words, we have Ukraine’s president, its foreign and defense ministers, and a top national security official all urging calm, while denying there’s sufficient evidence to expect a coming Russian invasion, contrary to the tidal wave of messaging from US officials and the press. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defense minister earlier told the country’s parliament that “as of today, there are no grounds to believe” an invasion is imminent, adding, “No need to have your bags packed.” The secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, roughly the Ukrainian equivalent of the US president’s National Security Council, has similarly played down the need for panic, telling the BBC that “if something is not there, it is not necessary to say that it is,” and refusing to affirm the US media portrayal of an imminent Russian invasion, saying that “the threat from Russia to our country always exists” - even charging that such panic-mongering helps Putin’s machinations in Ukraine. “We can say 100 times a day invasion is imminent, but this doesn’t change the situation on the ground,” he insisted. In the same call, Ukraine’s foreign minister told Michel the evacuations were “premature and a display of excessive caution.” He later told reporters that the number of Russian troops amassed “is insufficient for a full-scale offensive along the entire Ukrainian border,” and that they “lack some important military indicators and systems to conduct such a large full-scale offensive.” Zelensky is not the only Ukrainian official to strike this note. The only thing that has become bigger is the hype around them,” he said, adding that media should strive to “be methods of mass information and not mass hysteria.” Later, after Washington and the UK evacuated their Ukrainian embassies, Zelensky thanked Charles Michel, president of the European Council, and leaders of European Union countries for not following suit. “The risks have not just existed for a day, and they have not become bigger. Last week, just hours before Biden told the White House press corps he thought Russian president Vladimir Putin would “move in” because he “has to do something,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was urging his people to “take a deep breath” and “calm down,” assuring them things were “under control.” While what exactly was said remains a point of dispute, the substance is that Biden believes a Russian invasion could come in February, while Zelensky holds that it’s far from clear and that the Russian threat is “dangerous but ambiguous.” Just yesterday, the split led to a minor diplomatic rift after a phone call between Joe Biden and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, which Kyiv signaled in advance it would use to ask Washington to tamp down the rhetoric. While politicians and media in the United States, UK, and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries have been hyping the prospect of war, officials inside of Ukraine - the country being potentially invaded - have been telling people a different story. With so much excitement happening, you’d be forgiven for missing the serious doubt that such an invasion is even going to happen. It’s one of several measures meant to deter or, in the worst-case scenario, defend against a Russian invasion that’s been sold as “ imminent” since the start of December. Washington has been flooding the former Soviet republic with weapons and other military aid ever since, with $200 million worth starting to arrive this week, and Democratic lawmakers are now scrambling to send another $500 million of military aid on top of that. The world has been gripped for the past two months by the Ukraine crisis, with Moscow seemingly poised to invade Ukraine at any moment, and US officials calling for war - even nuclear strikes - in response. ![]()
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